Stock Analysis: AIRASIA 5099 as of date 10th Mar 2017 (UTC+8:00)

 - - - created on 10th Mar 2017 (UTC+8:00) - - -

AIRASIA 5099 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

Surprisingly, AirAsia share price has rise significantly close to RM 3.00 this year, way faster than what I predict to be happend in 3 years time. Unfortunately, I have disposed my share around RM 2.60 and aiming for other more potential share, but I do not regret that because one thing that we should keep in our mind. Greedy is the biggest enemy in stock market. Never chase after the maximum profit, because you might end up with loss.

Well, back to the stock. So why is it rising this significantly?

• Market is motivated by the news that AirAisa is in the mid of disposing their aircraft leasing unit, Asia Aviation Capital Ltd, where the earning will be return to the investor as dividend this year (predicted by CIMB Research, see link).

• More important, this is even strengthen by the action of their shareholder personal share buyback (see AirAsia Bursa Annoucement on 1st Mar 2017). 

So, is it time to BUY, SELL, or HOLD for AirAsia? The actions to be taken by short, medium, and long term investor is different as below.

Short Term Investor
People who invested: SELL at range RM 2.80 - RM 3.00
Why: Due to the catalyst news above, that's why AirAsia price rise significant. I believe this bullish trend will soon cool down and lead to slightly price drop.
People who yet to invest: CLOSE CASE, do not aim AirAsia at the moment
Why: AirAsia does not pay out constant dividend, therefore, for short term investor, you will be aiming for capital gain. And now, I see lack of potential for capital gain in short term. 

Medium / Long Term Investor 
People who invested: HOLD
Why: I still see AirAsia as potential company in at least 6 years time from now. Therefore, as a medium or long term investor, you can always hold the share and enjoy the shareholder benefits if the company is making money. 
People who yet to invest: BUY only if the price drop around RM 2.60
Why: Although medium or long term investor is aiming to earn via shareholder benefits. However, you also hope that the capital you invested doesn't shrink. Therefore, for the sake of capital protection, it still safer for you to enter at RM 2.60, unless you are risk taker.

My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.

• Short Term: 3 years and below
• Medium Term: 3 to 6 years 
• Long Term: 6 years and above

Please be reminded that above is just a recommandation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!